Scott Lucas
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani says the US can return “within an hour” to the 2015 nuclear deal, between Tehran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China).
The Biden Administration says it will negotiate re-entry into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, from which Donald Trump withdrew in May 2018.
So what is the problem?
Welcome to the “You First” dilemma.
Majid Takht Ravanchi, Iran’s Ambassador to the UN, said on Tuesday to the new American Government, “You first.”
“Our position is clear: the US must completely lift sanctions....We don’t want anything more or less than that.”
But the new US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on the same day to the Islamic Republic, “You first”.
“[We] have to evaluate whether they were actually making good if they say they are coming back into compliance with their obligations [under the JCPOA], and then we would take it from there.”
It only took Trump a moment to shred US involvement in the nuclear deal. It will take far longer, and with much more diplomatic finesse, to return to the position of July 2015.
Each side has built layers that have to be removed one by one.
On the American side, it is not just the comprehensive sanctions imposed in November 2018 but each subsequent blacklisting of Iranian companies, individuals, and foreign entities doing business with them.
On the Iranian side, it is each step suspending a provision of the JCPOA: exceeding the limits on 3.67% uranium, installing advanced centrifuges, and this month returning to enrichment of 20% uranium and producing uranium metal.
The layers are not permanent but not a single one will be lifted while the exchange between Washington and Tehran is “You First”.
The Gap Over New Talks
Then there is the wide division between a return to the 2015 deal and a renegotiation of it.
Even before considering the hawks in Washington who oppose any agreement, the Biden Administration has no inclination simply to return the clock to January 2017, before Donald Trump replaced Barack Obama.
Those in the Administration involved in the negotiations for the JCPOA - John Kerry, then Secretary of State and now climate change envoy; Wendy Sherman, lead US negotiator and now Undersecretary of State; Blinken, then Deputy National Security Advisor and now Secretary of State; Jake Sullivan, then a State Department advisor and now National Security Advisor - want a revised agreement. Areas of concern are led by Iran’s ballistic missile program and the terminal dates on the agreement’s provisions.
And it’s not just the Biden team that are insisting on an update. The three European powers - the UK, France, and Germany - have been leading the call for renegotiation while seeking a US return to the table.
French President Emmanuel Macron has said since November 2017 that a deal must cover missile development and production: “It should be completed with necessary points.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel appealed in May 2018 for an “expansion of the negotiating framework”.
But publicly Iranian officials, beginning with the Supreme Leader, are ruling out revisions. Ambassador Takht Ravanchi said on Tuesday, “We will neither allow the JCPOA to be renegotiated nor will we allow anything to be added to it.”
Speaking Quietly for Now
Is there no way back to the deal?
Seen through public positions, the answer appears to be No.
But it is useful to remember that the path to the JCPOA did not begin in public. Instead, back-channel discussions were held in 2012 in Oman, reportedly including the Supreme Leader’s top aide Ali Akbar Velayati and US officials including Jake Sullivan.
In public, the rhetoric was heated with Ayatollah Khamenei ruling out any negotiations with the Americans. But the “quiet” contacts maintained the possibility, and when new President Hassan Rouhani told the Supreme Leader in September 2013 of the extent of Iran’s economic difficulties, the Supreme Leader authorized formal discussions.
The lesson for today? Anyone who expects a quick US re-entry to nuclear deal will be disappointed. Meanwhile, except for those who are involved, we are unlikely to know of the contacts between the Biden officials, best seen as pragmatists seeking a way out of confrontation, and Iranian counterparts.
Those back-channel talks will not be enough for a resolution which means no US sanctions and Iran’s return to 3.67% uranium. But they could be enough to check further steps weakening the JCPOA - and a reality contrasting with the Supreme Leader’s position that
engagement with the Americans is “fruitless”.
It only took Trump a moment to shred US involvement in the nuclear deal. It will take far longer, and with much more diplomatic finesse, to return to the position of July 2015